A few observations and predictions on Northampton County Races

    Here we are, 10 days before the primary, and the Northampton County Executive and Bethlehem Mayoral races are still in doubt.

  That's right, I said that they are still in doubt. Lets begin with the County Executive race.

   If it were held today, I predict somewhere between 18,500 and 21,500 Democrats will vote in the race. That would be at least 3000 more than voted in the Stoffa/Reibman race in 2005. If it were held today, Callahan would get 38%  (between 7030 and 8170 votes),  McClure 34% (between 6290 and 7110 votes), and Reibman 28% (Between 5180 and 6020 votes).

      With ten days left, there is still a great deal of room for any of the three to either fall back or surge ahead. I think the race is Callahan's to lose. The problem for me is that when I look at the overall picture, I see Reibman and Callahan engaging in a campaign of mutual assured destruction. Their numerous negative attacks on one another reminds me of the adage that "If you set out on revenge, you should dig two graves."

     The tactics have allowed Councilman Lamont McClure to quietly plow forward into contention.  Someone pointed out to me last week that McClure and Reibman were getting savaged in the local blogosphere. I responded that I would bet less than one percent of the participating voters in Northampton had ever read my blog, let alone certain others. Of the 20,000 likely voters in the Dem primary,  Even if 5% ever read one of the blogs covering the Council race, that would be 1000 voters, and do you really think that many people read all these blogs?  I give a few blogs that kind of credit, but not mine. That's why when people cry foul over my presentation of Scott Ott's own dysfunctional blog ravings, I laugh at them. They doth protest too much.

 What really matters In Northampton is the continued negative mail and media campaign. It has made a psychological impression on the race. I can't help but wonder if a chunk of voters goes to he polls, looks at the choices and votes for the guy that has the least negatives. That gives McClure a shot on election day. It is never over until all the votes are counted, and while we can make educated guesses, if we were educated by idiots (the candidates themselves), there's a chance any guess is idiotic.

      Now moving on to the Bethlehem Mayoral race between Willie Reynolds and Bob Donchez.
      In 2005, the last time John Callahan had a challenger, 3850 voter participated in Bethlehem, and Callahan won with 2300+ votes. In 2009, Callahan was unopposed, and only received 2300 votes.
    Bethlehem's population and registration has stayed fairly static in the last decade, so I feel pretty sure that even with several high profile issues locally, (Garbage fees/Casino payments/budget shenanigans) Bethlehem City turnout by Democrats will not exceed 4000 voters.

   My personal algorithm has Donchez winning with 53% of the vote, but that was before Reynolds got a much publicized endorsement from the local paper. I can't ignore that Bethlehem has a recent track record of electing young progressives as their mayors. Reynolds would fit right in  behind Don Cunningham and John Callahan. All logic says he should not win, but sometimes logic has to be defied. I think Reynolds has the momentum and will win by a narrow margin Not 500 votes, how about 50?

    

If I were the candidate running against Scott Ott for executive.....

   I would have a piece in the mail today highlighting his views on the Terrorist attack on Boston. If I were Dean Browning, who happens to be vying with Ott for the Republican County Executive nomination, I would send a copy of Ott's Post to every Lehigh County Republican Party Committee member and ask that they condemn it. I would also create a campaign mailer targeting supervoter vets and your true believer Republicans.
   If they give Scott Ott the nomination after this, it will be a kiss of death for R's across the county at any level. Because I guarantee you, Come November the Democratic party will make sure every Democrat in the County will know about Scott Ott and more will go to the polls to support their candidate over OTT than recent memory. We could see Cunningham over Ervin like turnout.
   Tom Muller is a good candidate, and knows how to manage. Scott Ott knows how to insult them. What do you think voters will do with that kind of choice in November?

Curious George near Hellertown? Another slow news day in the Valley

    Because there is absolutely no real news to report, the big story today is that a Morning Call staffer was walking her dog and thought she saw a monkey. Because wandering wild monkees are as great a threat to democracy and our way of life as terrorists, this is front page news.

   Read the story here.  No word confirming other possible sightings of a Monkey wearing a blonde wig, stilletto Pumps, and driving a Black Toyota Rav 4 being sighted at a  nearby firearms range.
   Though there are reports that the monkee is a pretty good shot with handguns, better than many political candidates.
   Just like CNN, we will report if we have a breaking news update.

   For those of you wondering, this is satire.

Scott Ott's take on the Boston Marathon bombing FOR REAL

  Last Monday was a dark day in American history. But Scott Ott found the humor in it. I was born in Boston. Numerous members of my family live there, and my Uncle had a heart valve replacement Wednesday at Beth Israel Deaconess Hospital. The same hospital where many of the bombing victims and now the lone surviving suspect are currently being cared for.

   Read Scott Ott's mind numbingly insensitive humor post from his Scrappleface blog here.

  What Mister Ott has written about my hometown makes me angry. It is my humble opinion that he is a heartless piece of CRAP. But I think you readers should read his post, and make your own decisions.

   Terrorist Bombings of American Cities are not funny. PERIOD.

Scott Ott's personal writings show a disturbing attitude towards Teachers, among others

   I make no apologies for reading Scott Ott's Scrappleface blog or any of his entries at Town Hall or the Washington Examiner. The man has written pages of what he calls humor or satire, that shows a basic lack of respect for many of the people he would be governing over should he be elected County Executive. People are furious  with me for pointing out Scott Ott's own words, that he has posted. They are attacking me because that's what people do when they can't defend the truth.

   Maybe he should not have written any of  it? If it wasn't there, then we couldn't read it, but it is.
  
   I have friends and relatives who are teachers in various school systems across America. They are all good people who work hard in difficult conditions to try and educate the next generation. Demeaning them does not solve the funding problems that all entities are starting to face.

       On October 30, 2007 Mr Ott wrote a post on his Scrappleface blog where he referred to America's Public Schools as "DROP OUT FACTORIES".  He also claimed that 40% of American High School students drop out.
   I would like to know where he got those numbers. They seem outrageous, and they are.

    In another entry from Scrappleface, on February 24, 2004, Mr Ott referred to the National Education Association, (NEA) as an extortionist, monopolistic cabal.

   In an August 19, 2002 Scrappleface entry, Mr Ott suggested the NEA was responsible for "American Provincialism", "Narrow mindedness" and "Bigotry".

   I know a lot of teachers, and I can't find one of them who ever taught their students to think that way. That is of course, unless they asked their students to read Mr Ott's writings. Then they might be able to discuss those topics pretty thoroughly.

  I can't decide what of Mr Ott's published literary humor to post next. Should it be how he feels about blacks? Abortion? Planned parenthood? Or maybe his take on the Terri Schiavo controversy in 2005, where he tried to make light of the tragedy by writing about a Schiavo diet book. On february 22, 2005, Mr Ott wrote: "with the Atkins diet fad waning, obese American women have embraced a new book, "The Terri Schiavo Diet: No Willpower Required." pushing it to the top of the New York Times Bestseller list. The book, penned by a ghostwriter for Mrs. Schiavo, promises "Dramatic weight loss and life change without any need to make personally difficult decisions."

        Scott Ott thinks he was being funny. What would he find funny if he was elected County Executive?
      Do even the more moderate members of Lehigh County Republicans want to take a chance and find out?
     I know the Democrats don't.

What Lehigh County Executive Candidate Scott Ott really feels about Military Veterans (In his own damning words)

   East Penn School Board Member Julian Stolz, someone I know and like despite disagreeing with much of his politics, has said some pretty controversial things lately in Social media that have put him in some hot water. Julian is opinionated but in my opinion, it is all much ado about nothing. He is young, and just getting started.

   But Lehigh County Executive Candidate Scott Ott has a plethora of colorful quotes and opinions that he has issued for public consumption on the Internet in the last decade. Some of this stuff is so disturbing you can't believe he actually wrote or said it.  If someone is running for elected office, you want to believe that they will take the job seriously.You also want to believe that they realize they represent everyone, not just the few that voted for them, and they have a duty not only to serve all, but RESPECT ALL.  After reading through Mr. Ott's so called "satirical" views concerning many different groups, none of which he either belongs to or has affection for, I am sure of one thing: There's a whole bunch of us that he looks down upon in society. The only purpose we serve in his eyes is to be ridiculed and disparaged. Those are not things most people look for in their leaders. In fact, it is the kind of thing I saw in most cowardly bullies.

    I am a United States Army Veteran, a member of the American Legion, and I don't think too highly of would be politicians/half assed so called journalists who mock military Veterans and the plight many of them face after service. So today's entry will concentrate on what Scott Ott erroneously thinks is funny about Veterans.
    In April 2009, during his first run for County Executive, Scott Ott suggested in the Washington Examiner where he was a regular contributor that Democrats view war veterans as poorly educated and deeply troubled. I know Mr Ott has a degree in Journalism from Penn State, but nowhere in his resume did I see any doctorates in Psychology. I also didn't see any military service time on there, so I can't figure out where he got the qualifications to make such judgements about military personnel, or what makes him think he knows where we came from or what our education levels are. I could argue all day on that point, but instead I want to remind everyone of one thing that all Military members do:
   We Stand ready to defend your freedoms. One of those freedoms is the right to free speech. I will defend to the death Mr Ott's right to say and/or write incredibly insensitive things.
     But I will also exercise my right to point out that I find much of what he has written and claims to be "satire" to be incredibly insensitive to the plight of many military veterans.  I am going to use two instances in the not so distant past to illustrate my point.
  
      Here is the first quote, from a Washingtom Examiner piece in April 2009:
     "After the Department of Homeland Security sparked a firestorm of protest from right-wing extremists over a nine page report on the "resurgence in radicalization and recruitment among right-wing extremists groups, DHS chief Janet Napolitano announced today that her department would soon release a similar report on leftist groups via twitter. The "Rightwing Extremism" report warned that the current economic crisis, and the election of a black President, could inspire returning war veterans and others to join violent groups plotting against their own nation......Meanwhile Napolitano said she would meet with veterans groups to apologize for what many saw as a disparaging characterization in the report on right-wing extremists. "I would say that I am sorry if some of our deeply troubled war vets misunderstood our report because of their limited education" Ms Napolitano said. "After all they joined the military because they had no other options. We at Homeland Security should be sensitive to folks who didn't have the benefit of a liberal arts education, or the kind of wisdom that comes from high level policy meetings in Washington D. C." (Scott Ott, Examiner April 17, 2009)

      Mr Ott took a legitimate news report on right wing extremists groups in America and twisted it into what he thought was a humorous piece that demeaned the new Obama administration.
       Mr Ott thinks this is funny. This is his idea of satire, mocking Military veterans.This was not a one time thing, In the years before John McCain became the Republican nominee for President in 2008, he was a constant butt of Mr Ott's humor.

 To further illustrate Mr. Ott's lack of compassion, or disdain for any veteran who has served, let's go back to March 2007 when Scott Ott published his TOP TEN REASONS TO NOMINATE JOHN MCCAIN FOR PRESIDENT on his SCRAPPLEFACE blog
:
   10. Years as POW in Solitary Confinement prepared him for isolation of White House "Bubble"
     9.Won't accept Presidential paycheck, since at 72 he can live off Social Security
     8.More exciting presidential news conferences as reporters vie to light his fuse
     7.To beat him, Libs will have to get through his gang of 14
     6.Unlike Senators, Presidents have term Limits
     5. He has a lock on the black vote, because his middle name is Sidney, Like Poitier
     4.Won't surrender to anyone, since war injury prevents raising hands above head.
     3.No longer despises "Agents of intolerance" on whacko religious right
     2. Definition of "Surge" starts with 200,000 new boots, and Al Sadr dangling from a rope
     1. Not beholden to the Republican Party or Other Special interest groups.

   Scott Ott published this on his Scrappleface Blog on March 1, 2007.

     John McCain is a decorated War hero who spent more than 5 years in a Vietnamese POW camp under brutal conditions. He has served Our country all his life, and while I have different politics, I respect him. How is this funny? The entire list offends me, but number 4 is so blatantly disturbing that I cringe every time I read it. How do you mock a man's horrific war injury?
   On this list alone, Ott mocks POW's, Social Security Recipients, and African Americans and makes it looks unnaturally easy.

   Mr Ott has a right to say whatever he wants, but what a person says and does also shows a great deal about what kind of person they are, and just where they see you in the scheme of things. Mr. Ott has shown me in his writings that he does not respect those who have served this country, among others.

   Mr Ott continually presents himself as a good christian and follower of the word of Jesus.
   I wonder what Jesus would say about his attitude towards our wounded heroes?
   I would urge all my brother and sister veterans to take a pause before considering voting for this man at any level. He seems to think it all is a great big joke.  Well it isn't. We need serious leaders who know what they are doing, and treat ALL the people they are elected to serve with respect. I do not believe Scott Ott will do that, and I guarantee you, come November, there will be mailings to every Possible Lehigh County Voter pointing out how Scott Ott feels about each and every one of them.
  
      Veterans are just one of the groups Mr. Ott has mocked. I don't trust any person who disparages an American hero such as John McCain, or jokingly refers to any of my brother or sister veterans as deeply troubled because of our "so called" limited education. The plight of veterans returning home from the last decade of wars is no joking matter. Veterans are not uneducated, as a matter of fact, the military puts a high priority on education for all personnel, making higher education opportunities available for active duty members even when serving in the field. But Mr. Ott wouldn't know that, the closest he gets to any military personnel, past or present, is when he is trying to figure out a way to cut their services locally, so he can honor his pledge to kill off all useful government.
  
      We need leaders at the local level dedicated to making sure services are available to area veterans who desperately need them. Mr. Ott has vocally expressed his desire many times to refuse any and all pass through funding from higher levels of government that would fund those services. We can not trust him as County Executive to ensure he will do the right thing and take care of those in need.
    Veterans services are not an entitlement program, they are keeping a promise made to those who have served. The only thing Mr Ott seems to promise is that he will continue to mock us to further his political career and agenda.

If Newtown is not the tipping point, what the hell is?

  In December, 20 children were mowed down by a madman in Newtown Connecticut. Back in 2006, there was an amish school shooting here in PA that made all the news. Remember that? Probably not.
   We Americans seem to have become desensitized to violence, and from what I have seen in the past thirty years, there is very little evidence to refute that thought. I remember in the late 1980's as the drug crack brought violent warfare to every American city. Young  Americans died at a horrifying rate, but it was poor minorities, so nobody relly cared. There was a lot of political rhetoric, but the bloodshed went on into the 1990's.
   I have come to believe that we Americans just don't give a damn. As long as it is not our family member, we will profess our sorrow, offer our prayers, and move on, taking our kids to Dave and Busters or the Iron Pigs game.  We never believe it will happen to us.
    The thing is, Fate is the hunter. You really don't know where the next whack job will strike, and most Americans are willing to gamble it won't effect them.
    I don't know what to say, but I am tired of watching innocent children die because of nutjobs. I don't have an answer, but I find it absolutely irresponsible that no one is willing to take the lead and find a starting point.
    I disagree with Senator Pat Toomey on so many issues, but I respect him for trying to do something on this one. It Took courage. Too bad the rest of Congress didn't have any.

Some insight on the ballot refusal of the Allentown Water issue petitions

  If you read the blogs and the so called local media, you would think that the head of the Lehigh County Voter Registration office, Tim Benyo, was responsible for the water issue not getting on the ballot. Some folks mistakenly were lead to believe by uninformed sources that Benyo reviewed the petitions and found there to be a conflict between state and local laws, which kept Benyo from putting the question on the ballot, There is even a belief that he did nothing to notify the petition gatherers of their pending legal issues.

    All of this would be wrong

    You see, I have this nasty habit of asking questions and trying to find the truth. I am not sure who told what to whom, I only have the media reports and what I have read elsewhere. But I also have my firsthand investigation and my in person questioning of the parties involved.

    When you want to see petitions, usually you go to County Voter registration. But this time, the big secret is that THE PETITIONS NEVER LEFT THE CITY CLERK'S OFFICE. Tim Benyo never laid eyes on them. All Benyo ever got was a communication from the City Clerk that there was a legal conflict that prevented the issue from being on the ballot. After receiving that, he kicked it upstairs at County for the legal eagles to handle. To blame REPUBLICAN Tim Benyo and claim he is an agent of dark conspiratorial forces is untrue. He, and no one else at his office, ever laid eyes on the water issue petitions.

    So I went to the City Clerk's office and asked to see them. The only person there was a receptionist who wanted my name and purpose for seeing them. She retrieved the petitions for me after I made it plain  that I knew they had to be there......somewhere.

       She retrieved them from a cabinet from which she had to remove several piles of files to get to them.
      These things were buried on the bottom drawer under God Knows what in the City Clerk's office. I did look through them, and they were the originally submitted petitions. the kicker is I already had access to copies of the petitions from a third party and knew what I was looking for.  The receptionist told me I could only look at the petitions, if I wanted copies I would have to file a right to know and probably pay for them.
   
     So after 15 minutes paging through them and verifying they were the real deal, I went back downstairs and filed a Right To know Request asking for copies of the original petitions.

    I also learned at that time that the power burning plant petition folks had fallen approximately 800 signatures short in their efforts for a ballot question.

     If the water issue people have questions about what happened, they should start and end their investigation at the City Clerk's office. That is where all the evidence leads, and where the petitions are, literally buried. The Lease is pretty much a done deal, and they should accept that. But the actions of the Allentown City Clerk raise ethical questions on many levels. The Clerk has an obligation to do his job properly, in this case, his neglect in not notifying the petition gatherers of a potential conflict may have been perfectly within legal bounds, but rings loudly of political maneuverings. The Clerk should be above that,
    If I were an Allentown resident, I would ask City Council to review the procedure used by the Clerk in handling and verifying the petitions, and what measure are in place to enable the citizens to correct any mistakes or perceived deficiencies that might occur. A mechanism exists for candidates, isn't there one for potential ballot questions? There must be, and if there isn't, there should be.